In the first project phase of BLIZ, sectoral models for the simulation of ecosystem, biodiversity and land use changes at the Bavarian level were developed, parameterized and tested with observation and measurement data, and model uncertainties were estimated. Policy action spaces were investigated from local to international scales and possible future developments were estimated.
In the second phase of the project, narratives are being developed now that incorporate policy action spaces and climate projections. These narratives result in three BLIZ scenarios for Bavaria for which all models provide simulation results based on a coherent modeling protocol that are incorporated into the synthesis. Uncertainties in the model forecasts are also taken into account here. In the second phase of the project, recommendations for social and economic land use strategies will be derived from the scenarios and discussed and evaluated with practice partners.
Under outcomes you will find a list of all publications.
- Since the beginning of the project, the staff members of the subprojects of the BLIZ project have met at least three times a year to discuss the general progress of the project, as well as updates from the subprojects.At the end of 2021, the 10th internal workshop took place.
- On October 21, 2019, the BLIZ project opened the public lecture series of the FGG (Franconian Geographical Society) at the FAU Erlangen with the title: Challenges of Climate Change for Rural Areas in Bavaria. This resulted in “Challenges of climate change in Bavaria” Mitteilungen der Fränkischen Geographischen Gesellschaft (FGG) Volume 67 by Pohle et al. (2021). In 11 articles, this volume of the FGG gives an overview of the results from BLIZ.
- The BLIZ workshop “How to predict future land use and biodiversity change under climatic change at the regional level”, held online 05 – 07 October 2020, resulted in the perspective paper by Cabral et al. (to be submitted to People & Nature) “The road to integrating climate change effects on land use change in regional biodiversity models”. This review highlights existing approaches to biodiversity modeling and suggests how land use and climate change effects can be better integrated into biodiversity modeling. All TPs from BLIZ and other collaborative partners are involved here.
- From June 21 – July 19 2021, the BLIZ Summer School “Multidisciplinary Research and Synthesis” was held online. Subproject 2 and the BLIZ coordination organized this with 19 PhD students* from the bayklif projects BLIZ, AquaKLIF, LandKLIF, ADAPT, HyBBEx, BayTreeNet and MintBIO. Further interesting project ideas emerged from this.