In BLIZ, we take a look into the future and examine how the climate crisis will affect Bavaria in the long term and what options for action we have in various areas of agriculture and forestry, species conservation and water. The political framework for action at EU, national and Bavarian level is also taken into account.

Bavaria in the year 2100: Selection of three BLIZ scenarios for a look into the future – assumptions and storylines

Scenario 1: Biodiversity protection

“The world manages to meet the Paris climate targets and prevent severe global warming. In Bavaria, particular attention is paid to protecting biodiversity. Forests are gradually being converted into mixed forests to promote diversity in the ecosystems, and dead wood is left in the forest, both after disturbances and after timber harvesting. 10% of arable land is being converted into flower strips, grassland and forest and organic farming is being strongly promoted. The aim of these measures is to create more resilient ecosystems and preserve biodiversity.”

Scenario 2: Climate protection

“Like all other countries in the world, Bavaria is making a contribution to climate protection. The main focus is on intensifying agriculture through the cultivation of bioenergy crops; the perennial bioenergy crop miscanthus is cultivated on 10% of arable land. Wood is increasingly being used as a durable building material, harvested from surviving coniferous forests. Wood harvesting residues are increasingly being used for energy production.”

Scenario 3: Climate adaptation

“The global climate protection measures cannot be implemented and Bavaria must adapt to severe climate change. Coniferous forests are converted to mixed forests while deciduous forests are preserved. Arable land is irrigated to ensure plant growth. Increased fertilization supports agricultural productivity. The agricultural area remains constant to avoid having to change eating habits.”

Schematic representation of the three selected BLIZ scenarios biodiversity conservation, climate protection and climate adaptation and the assumptions for the model calculations.