Interactions between society, land use, ecosystem services and biodiversity in Bavaria until 2100
How will ecosystem services and biodiversity develop in Bavaria?
The interdisciplinary collaborative project BLIZ takes a glance into the future and develops new scenarios for a sustainable management of ecosystems in Bavaria.
BLIZ is a joint project of the Technical University of Munich (TUM), the Julius-Maximilians University of Würzburg (JMU), the University of Regensburg (UR) and the Friedrich-Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg (FAU). BLIZ consists of 6 subprojects.
We investigate the impacts of climate change on ecological systems (ecosystem services and biodiversity) and socio-economic systems (land use development) and their interactions. With the help of computer-based simulation models, we investigate which adaptation strategies lead to a stabilization of these systems and under which circumstances drastic ecological degradation or socio-economic changes (so-called tipping points) can occur.
The aim of the collaborative project is to develop concrete instructions for sustainable management and to assess possible uncertainties. This raises the following research questions:
- Which impacts do climate and land use change have on Bavarian ecosystems?
- What are sustainable social and economic (land use) strategies for Bavaria that could counteract the loss of ecosystem services and biodiversity?
- How can ecological and socio-economic tipping points be avoided?
The methodical approach is,
- to develop and apply dynamic models based on newly collected and existing empirical data,
- to generate an estimate of the uncertainties and to evaluate this uncertainty economically,
- to develop appropriate adaptation and management strategies and
- to communicate these strategies to stakeholders.