We analyze developments in Bavarian land use both from a historical and future perspective. Historical changes in the Bavarian landscape are investigated using remote sensing methods. Based on the forecasts of the climate-sensitive ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS (subproject 1) decisions of farmers and foresters on future land use are simulated.
We are interested in how farmers and foresters allocate their resources (such as land) to different usage options among others. To estimate the distribution of land use options, modern land use models are employed at the level of representative agricultural model farms or for representative model forest holdings. The input information for these models could be productivity and its fluctuations, market price developments, crop failures or calamities in the forest. The analysis of conflicting goals, for example conflicts between productivity and biodiversity or multifunctionality, constitute a substantive part of the research approach. The already existing modeling approaches are extended towards optimization under multiple objectives in order to actively integrate ecosystem services or damages to the environment (for example erosion or excessive use of liquid manure) into the optimization process. The results contrast primarily economically driven as well as multifunctional developments (taking into account ecosystem services) of future land use in Bavaria. Alternative land use options (agroforestry, energy wood plantations) are also evaluated.